Going Green Transport · Internal
Vehicle Investment: Market Analysis
Seed to sale, we never fail
Which van should GGT buy next: fresh-frozen reefer capacity for cultivators, or ambient capacity for the hemp beverage and manufactured goods market.
October 5, 2026
The question
Cultivation is the only license type that needs fresh-frozen cold chain. Almost everything else moves ambient.
Fresh-frozen cultivation
Needs a true reefer, 0°F to -20°F. Higher upfront cost, ongoing maintenance, and a narrow customer base.
LPHE cans & cannabis manufactured goods
Moves at ambient temperature. Needs weight capacity and pallet room, not refrigeration.
This deck sizes three transport markets against two vehicle types, so we can pick the next van with the numbers in front of us.
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Three markets, one van budget
The transport markets we can serve today
Segment 01
LPHE canned & edible
Ambient hemp beverages and edibles. Uncapped license type, largest and fastest-growing retail footprint in the state.
No refrigeration needed
Segment 02
Fresh-frozen cultivation
Cannabis harvested and frozen for extraction. True cold chain, 0°F to -20°F. A narrow slice of a capped license type.
Reefer required
Segment 03
Cannabis dry goods & manufactured
Ambient cannabis flower, gummies, vapes and other manufactured products moving between licensed businesses.
No refrigeration needed
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Market size · OCM data, Sept 21, 2026
LPHE is roughly 6x the licensed account base of cannabis
LPHE licenses issued
2,015
Uncapped, still growing. 70 applications under review.
Cannabis licenses issued
381
Across all 11 cannabis license types. Several types capped.
License type
Issued
Applicants
Cap status
LPHE retailer
1,895
2,374
Uncapped
LPHE manufacturer
69
138
Uncapped
LPHE wholesaler
51
114
Uncapped
Cannabis cultivator
24
96
24 of 50 used
Cannabis mezzobusiness
25
273
25 of 100 used
Cannabis microbusiness
276
1,854
Uncapped
Source: MN OCM Application and License Holder Data
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How cultivation works
From clone to product: two paths out of harvest
Start
Clone or seed
→
2–3 weeks
Vegetative growth
→
8–16 weeks
Flowering
→
Day of
Harvest
Harvest forks two ways
Days to 2 weeks
Cure & dry
Becomes ambient flower. Moves as dry goods, no refrigeration. This is most of the cultivation market.
Same day
Freeze within hours
Becomes fresh-frozen product. Moves to extraction for concentrates, vapes and edibles. Needs a true cold chain from pickup on.
Only the freeze-within-hours path needs a reefer. Everything else in cultivation, and all of LPHE and dry goods, moves ambient.
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Pickup frequency by grow type
How you grow decides how often we show up
Grow type
Cycle
Pickups/acct/yr
Primarily used by
Indoor, staggered multi-room
Continuous, 1–2 wk harvests
35–45
Cultivator, larger Mezzo
Indoor, single-room
One 12–14 wk cycle at a time
~4
Mezzo, larger Microbusiness
Outdoor
One harvest a year, fall
1
Some Cultivator/Mezzo, most cultivating Microbusiness
Minnesota law bars mixing indoor and outdoor cultivation on one license (Minn. Stat. § 342.25, subd. 7). Outdoor growers get one harvest a year, bunched into a single fall window, whatever tier they hold.
Freezing within hours of harvest is a processing choice made at cut, not a grow type of its own. It can happen on an indoor or outdoor harvest alike. That choice is next.
Estimates from indoor/outdoor cycle lengths and MN licensing data
06
Non-fresh-frozen cultivation, by license type
Most cultivation transport still never needs a reefer
License type
Issued
Fresh-frozen
Ambient accts
Pickups/acct/yr
Ambient/yr
Cultivator
24
~10–14
~10–14
35–45
350–630
Mezzobusiness
25
~0
25
15–20
375–500
Microbusiness
276
~0
276
4–10
1,104–2,760
Market-wide ambient cultivation volume: roughly 1,800–3,900 pickups a year, almost entirely a cargo-van job. Fresh-frozen is now modeled at about half the cultivator tier, not a handful. See the next slide for that case.
This is the full licensed market, not accounts we've won. Microbusiness cultivation share is the least certain input here: many hold the license but buy flower wholesale instead of growing.
Estimates from MN OCM licensing data and cultivation cycle lengths
07
Revised assumption
If half the cultivator tier wants fresh-frozen, not a handful
Cultivator licenses
24
Fresh-frozen, revised (~50%)
10–14
Our capture target
3–5
What changed
Old assumption
Revised
Fresh-frozen accounts, statewide
A handful (~3–5)
~10–14
Capture % needed (3–5 won ÷ market)
30%–50%
25%–42%
Ambient cultivator accounts left
~19–21
~10–14
The market got bigger, but our target didn't. We still only need 3–5 signed accounts to justify a fresh-frozen vehicle, and that pool of 10–14 makes 3–5 an easier ask than a market of 10. This is the strongest argument yet for revisiting the reefer sooner, once a handful of these bigger cultivators sign, rather than waiting for the segment to fully prove out.
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Segment 01 · LPHE
Ambient, uncapped, and already six times the size
Retail endpoints
1,895
Manufacturers + wholesalers
120
What it needs from a vehicle
- Ambient transport, no refrigeration
- Weight and pallet capacity: beverage pallets run 1,000–2,000+ lbs, 80–100 cases each
- High-roof cargo van or box truck with real GVWR headroom, not a sprinter-class van
- Year-round demand, no seasonal spike
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Segment 02 · Fresh-frozen cultivation
Higher margin, and now roughly half a small tier
Licensed cultivators statewide
24
Of a 50-license cap, plus a slice of 276 microbusinesses
Practicing fresh-frozen extraction
10–14
Revised to about half the cultivator tier, see Slide 08
What it needs from a vehicle
- True cold chain: 0°F to -20°F, not just AC
- Dedicated freezer unit, higher upfront and running cost
- Lower volume per pickup: totes and bins, not pallets
- More mechanical failure points; a reefer failure risks spoiled product and liability
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Segment 03 · Cannabis dry goods & manufactured
Ambient cannabis flower, gummies and vapes
Total cannabis business accounts
~350
Cultivators, mezzo, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers
Existing competition
~12
Licensed transporters already splitting this account base
What it needs from a vehicle
- Ambient transport, no refrigeration, for cured flower and finished goods
- Lighter, smaller-footprint cases than beverage pallets: gummies and vape cartridges
- A standard high-roof cargo van covers this, no reefer or heavy-payload upgrade needed
- Smaller, more contested account pool than LPHE
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Vehicle cost
An old van and a $2K freezer beats a reefer on price
Component
Est. cost
Applies to
Cargo van, new
$50K–$55K
Ambient: LPHE + dry goods
Cargo van, used (2–4 yr)
$28K–$35K
Ambient: LPHE + dry goods
Cargo van, used (5–10 yr)
$12K–$18K
Ambient: LPHE + dry goods
CannaCage security kit
$2,500
Required on any van hauling product
Reefer van, new
$70K–$80K
Fresh-frozen, built-in cold chain
Reefer van, used
$25K–$45K
Fresh-frozen, built-in cold chain
In-van freezer unit, retrofit
$1,500–$2,000
Portable add-on, alternative to a full reefer
Cheapest ambient path
$14.5K–$20.5K
5–10 yr cargo van + CannaCage
Cheapest fresh-frozen path
$16K–$22.5K
5–10 yr van + freezer insert + CannaCage
Built-in reefer, used
$27.5K–$47.5K
True commercial cold chain
A $1,500–$2,000 portable unit is sized for totes and bins, not a full pallet load, and may not hold 0°F to -20°F through repeated door-openings on a multi-stop route or a Minnesota summer. It fits fresh-frozen's actual volume, 1–2 pickups a month, but test it before trusting product liability to it. A used built-in reefer is the safer bet if fresh-frozen volume grows.
Sources: TrueCar, Edmunds, CarGurus, Comvoy, Driverge CannaCage
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Unit economics · Minneapolis base
What a trip actually earns, billed at $125/hr
Trip type
One-way drive
Billable hrs*
Gross
Driver cost
Contribution
Manufacturing, short
30 min
2.0
$250
$70
$180
Manufacturing, long
2 hr
5.0
$625
$175
$450
Cultivation, short
1 hr
3.0
$375
$105
$270
Cultivation, long
4 hr
9.0
$1,125
$315
$810
*Round-trip drive time plus 1 hr assumed load, unload and manifest handling
Margin holds flat
72%
Contribution as a share of gross, at any trip length
Break-even on the van
~22 hrs/mo
$2,000 monthly cost ÷ $90 contribution per billable hour
One driver/van at ~160–176 working hours a month caps out near 55–65 trips a month at a 2.5–3 hour average. The ambient forecast on Slide 15 runs 130–205 trips a month, so scaling past ~60 trips means driver overtime or a second van, not just more accounts.
$125/hr billed · $35/hr driver · $2,000/mo van overhead, fuel not included
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Putting it together
The market share we'd need to hit these numbers
Segment
Total market
Accounts won (target)
Capture % = won ÷ market
LPHE
2,015
30–40
1.5%–2.0%
Cannabis dry goods
~350
28–35
8.0%–10.0%
Fresh-frozen
~10–14
3–5
25%–42%
LPHE and dry goods targets are modeled on GGT's ~12-competitor landscape, needing 1.5–2x an even split to hit our account targets. Fresh-frozen's total market is revised to roughly half the 24-account cultivator tier (Slide 08), so that 25–42% figure rests on a denominator of 10–14, not a full license count. Treat it as directional, not a hard target.
A 1.5–2% share of a 2,015-account market beats needing 25–42% of a market of 10–14. The ambient segments are still the easier share to win.
Estimates, not commitments. Actual capture depends on signed accounts.
14
Volume forecast · modeled, not signed
At the accounts we can realistically win, ambient beats fresh-frozen 20 to 1
Segment
Accounts won
Pickups/week
Pickups/month
Pickups/year
LPHE cans & edibles
30–40
25–35
100–160
1,100–1,900
Cannabis dry goods & manufactured
28–35
7–11
30–45
350–550
Fresh-frozen cultivation
3–5
1–2
4–10
40–100
Ambient total (LPHE + dry goods)
1,450–2,450 /yr
One van, fully booked, year-round
Fresh-frozen total
40–100 /yr
A reefer van idle most weeks
Model: LPHE assumes mostly retailers on weekly-to-biweekly restock plus a few manufacturers/wholesalers shipping weekly. Dry goods blends grower harvest cadence (Slide 06) with retail/manufacturer restock, weighted by the license mix. Fresh-frozen assumes 1–2 cold pickups per account per month, not the full harvest cadence. Confirm all three against real order cadence with signed accounts.
Modeled estimate, not a signed-account forecast
15
Volume over time · licenses are closed and issued
Every market ramps, then flattens. The account pool is capped.
140
105
70
35
0
MONTH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
LPHE
3
6
9
12
15
18
20
23
26
29
32
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
DRY
3
5
8
11
13
16
19
21
24
27
29
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
FROZEN
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
LPHE, plateaus ~130/mo at 35 accounts
Dry goods, ~37/mo at 32 accounts
Fresh-frozen, ~7/mo at 4 accounts
Chart height is pickups per month. Rows under the axis are accounts signed to date, cumulative, ramping in a straight line to the midpoint of each target range by month 12 (LPHE 30–40, dry goods 28–35, fresh-frozen 3–5). Because MN's license windows are closed, the ceiling itself won't move. Growth past month 12 only comes from winning share inside a fixed pool.
Illustrative ramp, not a committed sales timeline
16
Recommendation
Buy a high-roof cargo van for LPHE and cannabis dry goods first
Why now
- 6x the account base of cannabis, uncapped and still growing
- Year-round demand, no seasonal bottleneck
- Our transporter license already covers it, no new endorsement
- $14.5K–$37.5K used (with CannaCage) vs. $27.5K–$80K for a reefer path
- Only needs a 1.5–2% share of a 2,015-account market
Hold the reefer for now
- Fresh-frozen is a handful of accounts inside a 24-license tier
- Cultivator harvest volume bunches seasonally for outdoor growers
- A reefer sitting idle most of the year is the wrong first bet
- Revisit once 3–5 fresh-frozen accounts are signed and ready to ship
GOING GREEN TRANSPORT · VEHICLE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
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Next steps
Before we sign for a van
01
Confirm order sizes
Call our top 2–3 LPHE prospects to size real pallet counts and case volume before locking the vehicle spec.
02
Quote van vs. box truck
Get pricing on a high-roof cargo van with a payload package against a cutaway box truck with a lift gate.
03
Revisit the reefer
Once 3–5 fresh-frozen cultivator accounts are signed, re-run this analysis for vehicle two.
Going Green Transport · Seed to sale, we never fail
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